Even the forecast just 12 hours in advance still predicted the storm too weak and far offshore. He quickly encountered a weather-related obstacle: What he saw from the windshield of his Chevy was a “blinding” snow that was falling and drifting so rapidly that it “was almost impossible to drive through.” Henricksen, longtime head of the Philadelphia region’s weather service office and now retired and living in Downingtown, was summoned because no one had seen this coming, thus no staffing contingency plans were in place. The importance of the coastal front is that it effectively steers the cyclone north-northeastward parallel to the coast such that it eventually acquires a favorable phase relationship for deepening with respect to a vigorous short-wave trough moving eastward from the Ohio Valley by 1200 GMT 19 February.Explosive deepening takes place in the ensuing 6 h coincident with the outbreak of convection near the storm center.
Yet lower magnitude, moderate-impact storms remain problematic. Intense tropical storminess over the west Pacific warm pool — including the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and typhoons — serve as precursor events for intense cyclones arriving along the U.S. West Coast (and even traversing the entire continent). Now, extreme winds can be remotely sensed by scatterometers. The phone rang.
Evidence is presented that initial analysis deficiencies coupled with inadequate boundary-layer and convective precipitation physics precluded a successful model forecast in this cam.If visible, please click on the Kudos Summary button above to view the author's plain language summary of this article. PHOTOS. •Record-breaking cold in precyclogenetic environment ensured snowfall across wide swath in Mid-Atlantic. Schools and businesses were closed as a result of what has come to be know as the President’s Day Blizzard of 1979.With those vivid memories in mind here is a look at today’s forecast. On 18–19 February 1979 a major east coast cyclone deposited a record-breaking snowfall on the Middle Atlantic States.
Uccellini noted that since 1979, the quality and coverage of observations have become far better, but they still aren’t perfect. Bosart, L. F., 1981: The Presidents' Day Snowstorm of 18–19 February 1979: A Subsynoptic-Scale Event. The model drastically under-predicted the strength of the system 36 and 24 hours prior to the event.
While it wasn’t the first surprise storm for forecasters — On May 24, 2014, a colloquium was held to focus on the advances in understanding and prediction of extra-tropical cyclones in the 35 years since the surprise snowstorm. Uccellini, fresh from his doctoral studies at the University of Wisconsin, had moved to Columbia, Md., six months before the blizzard to take a job at the Goddard Space Flight Center’s Laboratory for Atmospheres.
But the world and its 10-mile deep atmosphere are imperfectly observed, particularly over the oceans, and that was an issue in February 1979. The forecasters had missed the offshore explosive development as the storm encountered relatively warm waters. It’s “chaos,” said Henricksen. How to best convey uncertainty about forecasts to the general public still is a work in progress especially for extreme events since some individuals may have never seen a similar storm. As often happens after a winter snow storm, the winds eventually turned to a more southwesterly direction, warmer air rushed in, and the thaw began. This content is only available as a PDF.
Sunday, February 18, 1979, was a bitterly cold day across the Mid-Atlantic region.
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